5 Global Market Themes for the Week Ahead
Davos is going virtual for a second year and how long will the pound hold up against Britain’s growing political uncertainty?
BET ON IT
The earnings season in the United States is in full swing and this time it is the financial sector, with its meteoric start to 2022, which is in focus.
The S&P 500 Financials index is up nearly 6% year-to-date, while the broader S&P 500 index is down 2% as investors bet on banks benefiting from new loans and on the higher yields that should accompany a more aggressive Federal Reserve.
Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon report on Tuesday; Bank of America, Wednesday. Reports from major non-financial companies include Netflix on January 20.
Bank executives should be optimistic about the outlook, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to support demand for bank stocks. As some note, bank stocks often do better before rate hikes than during rate hikes.
GOOD NEWS FIRST?
The good news for Bank of Japan officials meeting on January 17 and 18: inflation is rising, the economy is recovering.
Consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years in November. Even Japanese affordable clothing giant Uniqlo says it has no choice but to raise prices – a change in a country where deflation is the norm and businesses face any cost increases by tightening the belt rather than passing them on.
The bad news? Inflation is rising for the wrong reasons.
Instead of being the result of nearly a decade of overpowering monetary stimulus, the price hike is due to soaring energy prices and a weaker yen.
The challenge is to prevent the rising cost of living from undermining weak household spending and a fragile recovery. So the BOJ could be debating when it can start telegraphing a rate hike.
Monday’s data is expected to confirm that China’s economy stabilized in the fourth quarter, rebounding from power outages and coronavirus setbacks and pushing 2021 growth to 8%.
Data on Wednesday showed new bank lending fell more than expected in December, although annual lending set a record as the central bank slowly steps up policy support to cushion the slowing economy.
Shutdown efforts to ease monetary conditions are a key focus for investors, alongside the question of whether policymakers can balance cleaning up a bloated real estate sector while containing stress.
With the Chinese New Year holiday in early February and the Beijing Winter Olympics shortly after, the central bank will be keen to keep banks and markets afloat with liquidity.
VIRTUAL IN DAVOS
For a second year, world leaders, policy makers and high-level business leaders will come to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss ski resort of Davos from January 17-21. great challenges.
The mood is bleak: only one in 10 WEF members surveyed expect the global recovery to gain momentum over the next three years, and only one in six are optimistic about the global outlook.
Climate change is seen as the number one danger, while erosion of social cohesion, livelihood crises and deteriorating mental health are seen as the risks that have increased the most due to the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19.
Japan’s Fumio Kishida, India’s Narendra Modi, Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Christine Lagarde of the ECB are all expected to speak. The full in-person meeting has been postponed to early summer.
The pound is sailing high on signs that the Omicron COVID surge is easing and expectations that UK interest rates are likely to rise again in February. It is at two-month highs against the dollar and one of the best performing major currencies heading into 2022.
If the upcoming data boosts rate hike bets, currency bulls will have another reason to push the pound higher. November jobs numbers are released on Tuesday, followed by December inflation on Wednesday and retail sales numbers on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the pound appears unfazed by the growing political uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s position as Prime Minister looks vulnerable after revelations he attended a Downing Street party during a 2020 lockdown. Didn’t someone say a week is it long in politics? The same could hold true for trading the pound.